Tuesday, December 04, 2012

CHEERY: The Debt Dam Bursts In Two to Four Years

Economic writer Robert Wiedemer's assessment matches those of former House Ways and Means chief Chris Carter and Paul Ryan: we have two years -- four years at the outside -- before the federal government's Ponzi scheme implodes.

...this dollar bubble and this government debt bubble – will burst. It is not as if it will not burst for 15 or 20 years. We say it is somewhere in two to four years. You need to be prepared for it.

The debt will always be funded as long as the Federal Reserve stands willing to buy all the bonds that the government sells. At some point, that creates inflation: that pushes up interest rates. The Fed will fight those interest rates going up. At first, they can do it. They just print more money. That keeps interest rates down, but ultimately that inflation will force them up. We cannot just pull the money out and raise interest rates now; it's going to pop the real estate and stock bubbles.

What is going to happen is the Fed is going to lose control of those interest rates. When you print too much money, it gets you control short-term, but it is a recipe for losing control long-term. With those interest rates going up, what is going to pop? The stock market and real estate bubbles. All of that is what kicks off the big problem going forward. Normally you would say the bond market is going to be the problem, but I would tell you that it is actually going to be more stocks and eventually even real estate combined. Then ultimately, the bond market starts to go down, and down quickly once it starts.

When the dam finally breaks, it will break quickly. Literally, it is in a matter of months or certainly no more than a year once it really starts to go.

You get very, very high inflation. We could have stock market holidays and things like that.

The big difference between now and the depression is that the government is also in trouble at this point. We are really not going to have a huge failure until the government kind of comes to its wits' end. It will, but it comes as a last massive orgy of money printing to try to save everything - unlike anything you have seen yet. QE1, QE2, QE3 is nothing like what the Fed has to do when this thing starts to fall. They have to print, buy, and buy, and buy, and try to keep up the falling house. They will not be able to do it, but that will be the reaction.

Then at some point, it is not going to work and the whole thing goes.

As Mark Levin observes, the only bright spot is that the progressive kooks are going down the tubes along with the rest of us.

Chart: Wikipedia.

1 comment:

Steve said...

Unfortunately, the Democrats are very good at blaming others for the results of their actions.